That chance is set so that each person will on average reproduce four times if they live 27 years. Each turn, every healthy individual has a chance to reproduce. Reproduction rate is constant in this model. In this model, people die of old age at the age of approximately 27 years. People may die from the virus, the chances of which are determined by the slider CHANCE-RECOVER, or they may die of old age. All the new individuals who are born, replacing those who die, will be susceptible. You can change the size of the initial population through the PEOPLE slider.Īs individuals die, some who die will be infected, some will be susceptible and some will be immune. Population density affects how often infected, immune and susceptible individuals come into contact with each other. Some of these factors are summarized below with an explanation of how each one is treated in this model. When the population dips below the environment's "carrying capacity" (set at 700 in this model) healthy people may reproduce healthy and susceptible offspring. People move randomly about the world in one of three states: healthy but susceptible to infection (green), sick and infectious (red), and healthy and immune (gray). The model is initialized with 150 people, of which 10 are infected. "Seasonality and the requirements for perpetuation and eradication of viruses in populations." Journal of Epidemiology, volume 109, pages 103-123) Ecological biologists have suggested a number of factors which may influence the survival of a directly transmitted virus within a population. This model simulates the transmission and perpetuation of a virus in a human population. On other operating systems, you may obtain the latest Java plugin from Web browser under Safari/Preferences/General.)
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